Flooded street in Dakar, West Africa – People wading through water that reaches up to their waists
West Africa is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The coastline of Senegal is eroding, and urban areas such as Dakar, the country’s capital, are also affected by heavy rains and frequent flooding. © APA-Images/Reuters/Zohra Bensemra

Droughts, floods, and other extreme events that are exacerbated by climate change threaten livelihoods – especially in the “Global South.” In January 2026, a devastating flood disaster struck southern Africa. In Mozambique alone, up to 100,000 people were forced to leave their homes.

It seems intuitively reasonable to think that as the climate crisis gets worse, mass migration to the “Global North” will increase. But reality is more complex, explains Stefan Lang, associate professor in the Department of Geoinformatics at the University of Salzburg: “The decision to leave one’s homeland can rarely be linked to just one single trigger.” Accordingly, there is no linear relationship that enables us to draw conclusions about international migration trends based exclusively on climate projections.

Besides the physical environment, factors such as poverty and conflict also play a role. What is more, not everyone has the opportunity to emigrate. Those who emigrate from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe, for example, must be prepared to leave their social networks behind and invest money in a long and potentially dangerous journey. Adapting to the situation or migrating to another place within their own country is the first – or even the only – option for many people.

Doing justice to a complex reality

According to Lang, an overly simplified view of the issue abounds not only in public discourse but also in research circles. So far, the diverse reasons behind the decision for or against migration have received little attention.

The interdisciplinary research project “Climate-Induced Migration in Africa and Beyond: Big Data and Predictive Analytics” (CLIMB) aims to change that. The international team from Europe, the U.S., and Africa (Senegal) combines climate and Earth observation data, movement profiles, official statistics, and sociological surveys with a view to creating a comprehensive picture of the relationship between climate change and migration decisions. The project analyzes both the various, often intergenerational phases of migration – from internal migration to emigration abroad and back to the home country—as well as the timeline of these phases.

The approach developed by the team uses Senegal as a case study. Situated in the westernmost part of Africa, this is one of the areas that are most severely affected by the consequences of global warming. Continuously rising sea levels, eroding coastlines, and storm surges are badly affecting the population, half of whom are under the age of 20. An increase in extreme weather events is expected in the region in the future. Cooperation partners from research, local authorities, and the telecommunications sector in Senegal were won for this basic research project.

Satellite images, cell phone data, and social media traces

The FWF-funded subproject led by Lang contributes tools for analyzing satellite data. The goal is to detect changes in vegetation, land use, or settlement patterns “in their spatiotemporal dynamics and at high resolution,” says Lang. For this purpose, his team is developing AI systems that support the analysis of large datasets covering a period of up to 20 years.

The Project

It is an oversimplification to say that climate impacts alone trigger migration. In most cases, economic and political factors also play a role. In the CLIMB project, researchers from the fields of political science, sociology, and data science are collaborating as part of an international consortium.

Satellite image of a crowded refugee camp in Tanzania
Satellite image (detail) of the Nduta refugee camp in northwestern Tanzania – a density analysis is shown at the bottom. © Maxar / DigitalGlobe, Universität Salzburg, Ärzte ohne Grenzen

In order to link environmental data with climate-induced migration, the researchers combine them with movement profiles derived from aggregated, anonymized mobile phone data. In this way, people’s mobility patterns become visible in the context of the physical environment. “These basic patterns are not necessarily linked to migration. They include regular seasonal movements, such as those of seasonal workers in agriculture, because certain crops are grown in specific locations and the workers go there.” Since the researchers collect very fine-grained data over long time series, they can, however, identify deviations in the patterns that indicate a migration movement. If, for instance, a natural disaster coincided in time and space with movement anomalies, a connection seems likely.

Lang’s project partners supplement the data with anonymized social media posts and cell phone data in order to gather evidence about the motives for migration. These data allow conclusions to be drawn as to whether the author of a post was actually fleeing and in what way migration processes are shaped by individual attitudes, socioeconomic resources, and public opinion. Additional sociological data are collected on-site through qualitative interviews. The interviews focus not only on individual motivations but also on household-level behavior, where local coping strategies play a significant role in the wake of a singular or recurring event (annual floods, moderate droughts, cyclones).

About the project

The relationship between climate change and migration is not linear but exists within a complex web of interconnected effects. The “Climate-Induced Migration in Africa and Beyond” (CLIMB) project takes an interdisciplinary approach to improve models of climate-induced migration. Geoinformatics expert Stefan Lang and his research group are part of the international project consortium, which comprises researchers in political science, sociology, and data science.

Knowledge transfer for climate adaptation

The kaleidoscope of data collected as part of CLIMB has already significantly improved migration models, says Lang: “Until now, simple push-pull models were used to attempt to statistically explain migration balances between source and destination areas without having data on the factors influencing migration decisions. Our holistic research approach can close this gap. Our new models can now capture more migration motives and dynamics, enabling better predictions of how a population will respond to changing conditions.”

It is as yet too early to make precise predictions for Senegal, notes Lang: “We are still a long way from the precision of weather models that are a close match to observational data.” A general truth: “There will always be extreme events that mobilize people – in Senegal, these events have so far included droughts and floods. But adaptation strategies will also continue to evolve.”

In this context, the project aims for practical impact: the knowledge gained about the causes of migration is intended to support specific measures for climate resilience. The Senegalese NGO IPAR plays a central role in this endeavor, as it brings together stakeholders from fisheries, agriculture, and disaster management within the project and derives action and policy recommendations from this collaboration. Knowledge transfer is not a one-way street, as Lang points out. “Our African project partners are already pioneers when it comes to resilience – just think of the reforestation projects in the Sahel. It is really a two-way exchange.”

About the researcher

Stefan Lang is an associate professor in the Department of Geoinformatics at the University of Salzburg. His research focuses include Earth observation, spatial image analysis, spatial representation of multidimensional phenomena, and hybrid AI. He heads the Christian Doppler Laboratory GEOHUM, which develops Earth observation and geoinformatics for humanitarian aid (in collaboration with Doctors Without Borders). The project “Climate-Induced Migration in Africa and Beyond” (CLIMB) receives roughly EUR 300,000 in funding from the Austrian Science Fund FWF.

Information about his current projects and publications can be found here.

Selected Publications

Modelling and predicting forced migration, in: PLOS One 2023

Earth observation tools and services to increase the effectiveness of humanitarian assistance, in: European Journal of Remote Sensing 2019